Would MillerCoors JV change the game?
Will the proposed joint venture between SABMiller plc and Molson Coors Brewing Company’s U.S. and Puerto Rico operations fundamentally alter the competitive landscape of the American beer business?
At the end of the day that’s the biggest question around the creation of MillerCoors, and the one that runs through analyst and media reports about the joint venture (still subject to regulatory approval).
It’s one that won’t be answered for a while. Analysts do view the JV as a long-term negative for Anheuser-Busch, although SABMiller CEO Graham Mackay, quoted by the Financial Times, noted: "I don't think it's realistic to expect the joint venture to get to Anheuser's domestic margins any time soon ... but we expect to make progress."
And there are challenges. Execution risks face any joint venture and provide potential opportunity for competitors.
And A-B will remain, far and away, the industry leader.
But there are plenty of arguments to be made that MillerCoors will make an impact.
As noted by analysts and others, the JV would have greater resources and scale than the companies have on their own – which helps in everything from buying raw materials to distribution to working with retailers. Morgan Stanley analyst William Pecoriello analyst ran down the benefits of this in a Wednesday morning note:
"Miller Coors would have (1) significant funds to reinvest in the market ($500m in synergies), (2) an opportunity to improve the efficiency of its distributor network (who would in turn have the opportunity to reinvest in the business), (3) a catalyst for greater consolidation at the wholesale level, primarily within the Miller - Coors network, which in turn improves the wholesaler economics making a more able competitor, (4) an opportunity to improve the efficacy and the impact of its marketplace investments, (5) leverage a more significant voice at retail, and (6) better align brands vs consumer needs and competitors."
Addressing Miller employees Wednesday morning via a live feed from London, Mackay said scale matters: “The deal will give the business – our business in the U.S. – the scale and the resources to compete. The market is becoming ever more competitive … and we need that scale and need those resources to enable production efficiencies, supply efficiencies and capital capacity utilization that would not be possible for us in our current layout.”
Also, the JV would have a stronger geographic presence than either brewer has on its own. Coors’ strengths in the West and parts of the Northeast complement Miller’s strength in the central part of the country and the Southeast.
And, critically, the JV’s brand portfolio would be well positioned to capitalize on industry trends, such as the continued growth of light beer.
The portfolio also would be poised to capitalize on the premiumization trend. The Jacob Leinenkugel Brewing Company (owned by Miller) and Coors’ Blue Moon brand have benefited from the growth of craft beers. And the combination should help other worthmore brands, including Peroni and Pilsner Urquell.
“When it comes to brands, the joint venture is going to be marvelously placed,” Miller President and CEO Tom Long (who would be president and chief commercial officer under MillerCoors) said during the employee meeting. “Imagine our craft portfolio, imagine our import portfolio, imagine our light portfolio. For all of you who care about brands – and I hope it’s every single of one of you – this is an amazing opportunity.”
Norman Adami, the outgoing President and CEO of SABMiller Americas who led a turnaround of Miller when he arrived in 2003, had no doubt on the meaning of the deal.
“It’s truly a transformational deal, a game-changing deal that is hugely important to our long-term ability to be stronger and even more competitive,” he said at the meeting.
Indeed, the Wall Street Journal quoted a distributor who saw upside in the JV. From the story:
"I think we'll sell more and our costs will go down, so we should benefit," said Phillip Terry, chief executive of Monarch Beverage Co., a big distributor in Indiana selling 15 million cases of beer annually, including both Miller and Molson Coors products. He said he hopes the merger savings will be "translated into additional market spending, more promotions around the brands."
The Financial Times story can be seen here.
The WSJ story can be seen here.