Opportunities, challenges for growing segment.
How big can craft beer get?
It's one of the biggest questions in the beer business.
Flat for years, craft has been on a roll since 2002. And it appears it has a good run ahead.
That said, craft will bump into some challenges as it grows bigger.
The latest issue of Brew Magazine takes an in-depth look at the opportunities and challenges facing craft.
From the issue:
Craft’s share of the overall beer market was flat at around three percent from the mid-1990s until 2002 when it started inching up again, according to figures from Beer Marketer's Insights. It was at 3.8 percent last year.
And it’s likely to keep growing for a variety of reasons including:
1. The strength of craft brewers. After four decades, a number of strong national, near-national and regional players have established themselves. Operators are experienced and have learned from the mistakes of the past. And they make high-quality, consistent beers.
2. Consumer trends. People are willing to pay a premium for products that are different and perceived to be of value -- the so-called “trading up” trend. Indeed, some consumers actively seek out higher-priced products.
People also increasingly want to buy products that fit in with their personal tastes – and are more attuned to their sense of individuality. So people seek stronger flavors and customization (think Starbucks coffee). Or they want to buy local.
“I don’t think what’s happening in craft is unique to it,” says Jay Brooks, a beer writer who publishes a blog called Brookston Beer Bulletin. “It’s part of a larger movement.”
3. A new generation of legal-drinking-age consumers are embracing crafts. Craft beers once skewed older. But now more 21-to-27-year olds -- for whom crafts have always been a part of the landscape -- are picking them up.
Proprietary research by Miller Brewing Company demonstrates that since last year crafts have increased share with this group.
Distributors see this playing out at the street level.
“I think the craft growth is being driven by the younger consumer, 21-to-35-year-old, who has a different taste profile than the older beer consumer,” says Kevin Burke, President of Burke Beverage Inc.
That said, there are limits to how high crafts can go. Among the constraints:
1. Capacity. If consumers demand more craft beer, craft brewers will have to expand to meet demand. And that’s an expensive proposition.
2. Palate. While a growing number of people want stronger flavors, the vast majority of consumers prefer light American lagers. Light domestic brews represent half the beer sold in the U.S.
The craft brewers recognize this. Boston Beer Company and New Belgium Brewing Company, among others, have introduced light beers. Also, more craft brewers are creating pilsners or wheat-style beers with crossover appeal to mainstream beer drinkers.
3. Shelf space. Retailers and distributors can handle only so many brands. And retailers can get cold-blooded about slow-moving SKUs -- as seen in the massive rationalization of craft beers after their big run-up in the 1990s.
“The number of SKUs is an issue,” Burke says. “We just watch the performance of them and eliminate the slower moving ones twice a year to make room for newer ones.”
4. Size costs. As brands pass certain size thresholds they acquire added costs – distribution complexity, additional marketing channels and SKU proliferation. Craft beers also likely will encounter increased competition from leading domestic brewers intent on protecting their market share -- even as they seek to participate in craft’s growth.
Still, all observers expect that craft beer has a long run ahead.
Skeptics would do well to remember that as recently as 1989 experts were writing off imports, which then represented 5 percent of the business. At that time, one industry expert went so far as to say that “Corona was, from beginning to end, a fad.”
Oops.
Imports now represent more than 12 percent of the business and Corona Extra is the sixth biggest brand in the country, according to BMI.
“In the near term, 10 percent isn’t realistic,” says Benj Steinman, publisher of Beer Marketer’s Insights. “But it’s a vision.”
The rest of the issue can be seen here.
If you would like to receive a free subscription to Brew Magazine, please drop a line with your name and mailing address here.