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Is A-B “Running Out of Opportunities” Globally?

Rumors it may make a run for Russian brewer.

Might Anheuser-Busch make a run for the biggest Russian brewer?

Baltik Beverages Holding, the No. 1 Russian brewer, currently is jointly owned by Scottish & Newcastle and Carlsberg SA. But Carlsberg, which teamed up with Heineken NV in a bid for S & N, is poised to take over the whole entity.

But the Daily (London) Telegraph is reporting rumors that A-B might try to crash the party.

From the report:

Anheuser Busch, the US brewing monolith behind the Budweiser brand, has long coveted the Russian business and the coming weeks could present it with its last chance to get its hands on one of the world's fastest growing brewers.

Carlsberg looks set to take full control of BBH, the Russian joint venture, after Scottish & Newcastle accepted a £7.8bn joint takeover bid from the Danish brewer and Heineken last month. However, industry insiders believe there is a chance Anheuser could still crash the party.

The reason is that while A-B has a dominant market share in the United States, it has a limited presence in developing markets that will drive the growth of the global beer industry in years to come.

From the Telegraph story:

One insider at a European brewer said: "For Anheuser it is decision time because it has a problem. They have an historic opportunity with S&N or InBev because they are running out of opportunities. "

Speaking of Russia, SABMiller plc CEO Graham Mackay said the brewer is eyeing expanding its presence in Russia, through acquisition or organic growth.

The Telegraph story can be seen here.

The Financial Times' coverage of Mackay's comments on Russia can be seen here.

A-B-InBev Combo Rumors Heat Up

Could things get hostile?

The perennial rumors of a combination between Anheuser-Busch and InBev heated up this week.

A Belgian business magazine reported that the two were in talks that could lead to a merger.

From a Reuters report:

InBev, the world's second-largest beer producer by volume, and. Anheuser-Busch are in talks that could lead to a merger of the two, Belgian business magazine Trends said on Thursday.

The New York Times’ Deal Book blog, citing Breakingviews, suggested that now -- as opposed to last year when similar rumors surfaced -- InBev would hold the upper hand in a deal. That’s due to its higher market valuation and the superior performance of its stock.

Continue reading "A-B-InBev Combo Rumors Heat Up" »

Rumors of InBev-A-B Deal Surface – Again

A-B declines comment.

The Wall Street Journal on Friday reported that the long-rumored combination of InBev and Anheuser-Busch is once again on the table.

From the story:

“InBev and Anheuser already have held discussions, say people in the industry familiar with both brewers' thinking. Although reports of the talks surfaced as long as a year ago, they have become more serious, and a deal is possible this year, people in the industry say.”

The report came on the heels of A-B reporting fourth quarter earnings that missed Wall Street estimates. Equity income from A-B’s stake in Grupo Modelo, which long has buoyed A-B’s profits, declined during the quarter.

Continue reading "Rumors of InBev-A-B Deal Surface – Again" »

A-B to Tap Russian Beer Market?

Reportedly in talks to help S&N buy Baltic Beverages Holding.

Is Anheuser-Busch poised to crack into the Russian beer market?

Anheuser-Busch and some private equity groups have met with Scottish & Newcastle to discuss a joint bid to take over Baltic Beverages Holding, the No. 1 Russian brewer, news reports over the weekend said.

BBH is a joint venture between Scottish & Newcastle and Carlsberg. But now that S&N is in the sights of a buyout bid by Carlsberg and Heineken, it is moving to take full control of BBH.

Getting a stake in BBH would enhance A-B’s international presence.

From the UK’s Daily Telegraph:

"S&N's plan would be to finance a bid for BBH by offering a 25 per cent stake to a minority partner.

"Anheuser-Busch has long coveted a place in the rapidly expanding Russian beer market and replacing Carlsberg in a new joint venture with S&N would offer it part ownership of the country's leading brewer."

The Telegraph story can be seen here.

Miller Chill Heads to Australia

Beer to be exported from U.S.

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Miller Brewing Company is exporting Miller Chill to Australia, the Wall Street Journal reported today.

The new brand -- a light beer brewed with a hint of lime and salt -- hit the Down Under today.

From the story:

"SABMiller selected Australia as Chill's first international market because of similarities between the Australian and U.S. markets, [Miller spokesman Julian Green] said. SABMiller has about half of a percent of total volume in Australia, according to Mr. Green. The company will import Miller Chill from the U.S., rather than having it brewed in Australia. The average price of a six-pack will be 13 Australian dollars ($11.87)."

Miller Chill, which was launched in test this past spring and went national in the early summer, has surpassed sales targets for the year and has achieved positive cash flow, the story said, citing Miller sources.

Miller Chill has surpassed Heineken Premium Light, Michelob Light and Modelo Especial in dollar share in supermarkets.

The Wall Street Journal story (subscription required) can be seen here.

Carlsberg, Heineken to Buy S&N?

Brewers in talks to make a run at brewer.

Carlsberg and Heineken are discussing forming a consortium to take out the U.K. brewer Scottish & Newcastle plc, the companies confirmed.

From a joint release:

"Carlsberg A/S and Heineken N.V. confirm that they are in discussions regarding the formation of a consortium to make an offer for the entire issued share capital of Scottish & Newcastle plc. An offer, if made, is likely to be in cash. It is currently intended that Carlsberg will ultimately acquire Scottish & Newcastle plc's interest in BBH, France and Greece and that Heineken will ultimately assume control of Scottish & Newcastle's business in the UK and other European markets."

S&N, however, calls the bid “unwelcome,” according to a report in Bloomberg. It said it’s ``confident in its future as an independent group'' and ``strongly urges shareholders to take no action.''

A British analyst quoted by Bloomberg says the deal is driven partly by Carlsberg’s desire to take control of BBH, its Russian venture with S&N.

From the Bloomberg report.

``Carlsberg is desperate to get its hands on BBH and control over the biggest-growth part of its business, which has been half-owned,'' said Bruce Davidson of Blue Oar Securities in London, who has a ``sell'' rating on Scottish & Newcastle. ``The driving force is the need to get into emerging markets.''

The Bloomberg report can be seen here.

The Carlsberg/Heineken release can be seen here.

InBev-A-B Merger Rumors Surface Again

InBev execs see a deal as destiny, Belgian report says.

InBev executives believe that an eventual merger with Anheuser-Busch “belonged to the nature of things,” according to a report in a Belgian business magazine.

From the Reuters report on the story, which appeared in the Belgian weekly Trends:

"Trends magazine said on Thursday that senior figures at Belgium's InBev believed a merger with Anheuser-Busch at some point 'belonged to the nature of things.'"

Recall in February that a Brazilian newspaper, citing an unnamed investment banker, said a merger had “big chances of happening one day.”

The Belgian report becomes the latest bit of speculation that outside parties are interested in acquiring the country’s biggest brewer. Hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert has been rumored to be interested in the company. Rumors about hedge fund manager William Ackoff’s interest surfaced this week.

The Reuters story can be seen here.

Beer Business Daily mentioned the report here (subscription required).

Fortune Exec Says Absolut Tie-Up “Logical,” Report Says

Exec recently met with key Vin & Sprit officials.

The top executive of Fortune Brands, which markets Jim Beam and other spirits brands, says acquiring Absolut distiller Vin & Spirit would be a “logical” move, according to a report in a Swedish publication.

Dagens Industri, a Swedish business newspaper, has reported that Fortune CEO Norm Wesley has met with “key persons in the sales process.”

The story quoted him as saying:

"'We have cooperated for a long time with Vin & Sprit ... It would be a natural and logical step after our close cooperation if we bought Vin & Sprit," Dagens Industri quoted him as saying."

Fortune, a conglomerate whose spirits arm is Beam Global Spirits & Wine, has been identified as a strong contender for V&S ever since speculation first surfaced that the Swedish government would sell the state-owned company.

Fortune and V&S already have a U.S. marketing alliance, and Fortune has the most to lose if another company acquires V&S. Also, Fortune has demonstrated an appetite for acquisition since it and Pernod Ricard carved up Allied Domecq a couple years ago.

A Reuters story about the Swedish newspaper report can be seen here.

Could Potential InBev-A-B Merger Get Hostile?

Speculation continues to swirl around rumored deal.

Might InBev, the world’s biggest brewer by volume, make a hostile run at Anheuser-Busch?

That was the speculation reported last week by Beer Marketer’s Insights Express -- which also noted such a scenario was difficult to imagine.

From the report:

Some sources even suggest possibility of an attempted hostile takeover.  It is wild and unprecedented to imagine such a scenario, but these days nothing seems out of the question. 

BMI also reported that late last week that A-B CEO August Busch IV sent a note to distributors and employees saying the media were “essentially passing on the rumor” reported in a Brazilian paper about merger talks. Busch said it was the company’s policy to not comment on rumors.

A Belgian newspaper added fuel to the speculation last week, according to a report in AFX News Service. From the story:

A source close to InBev's family shareholders told daily Le Soir today that the tie-up is 'written in the stars'.

The AFX story also quoted analysts from Rabo Securities saying a deal would make sense:

'From a strategic point of view, InBev and Anheuser-Busch have a good geographic fit and mainly complementary market positions,' the analysts said.

Go here for Beer Marketer's Insights.

The AFX story can be found at forbes.com.

InBusch?

Brazilian news report fuels speculation of InBev-A-B deal.

The longstanding rumor of a combination between Anheuser-Busch and InBev is getting hotter thanks to a Brazilian newspaper story.

Valor Economico reported that the two brewers -- which last fall reached a U.S. distribution deal for InBev’s European brands -- are in preliminary merger talks. The story was attributed to a source close to three of InBev’s directors, who previously managed AmBev.

From a Reuters story:

"Valor said at the end of 2006 InBev's market cap at $40.3 billion was higher than $37.7 billion for Anheuser."

It cited an unnamed source close to InBev's management as saying this number is important because it gives InBev "the possibility of negotiating a merger with Anheuser in better conditions."

Some analysts said a deal would make sense, given the ongoing consolidation in the global beer business and the lack of geographic overlap between the two brewers.

Matthew Jordan, analyst for Dresdner Kleinwort -- who gave the InBusch moniker to the potential new entity -- said “we had long considered the two companies to be obvious partners.”

He added: “Management might be shared initially but we would expect the Brazilian aggressive cost reduction culture to dominate within a year or two.”

Carlos Laboy, analyst for Bear Stearns, has previously argued that A-B is the “most viable candidate in any potential merger with InBev.” In a note he said:

"Our concern is whether the control-obsessed InBev controlling shareholders (former AmBev management) would be willing to be diluted in any major equity transaction."

Deutsche Banc analyst Marc Greenberg, meanwhile, said he did not assign a high degree of probability to the rumored deal.

Harry Schuhmacher, publisher of Beer Business Daily, said he was “mildly skeptical.” Read BBD here (subscription required).

The Reuters story can be seen here.

SABMiller Well-Positioned in China, Analyst Says

Partnership with CR Snow is working.

Snow_beer_1


SABMiller plc is “arguably the best positioned” European brewer in China thanks to its 49 percent stake in CR Snow, which has surged to become the biggest brewer by volume and revenue in the country, according to a recent report from Merrill Lynch.

Moving forward, the report said, SABMiller is focusing on brand building, particularly behind Snow, which recently became the No. 1 brand in China; driving increased regional scale; and managing price points.

The report maintained a sell rating on Tsingtao -- previously the “undisputed leader in the domestic premium beer segment” -- saying “intensifying competition is likely to require higher marketing spending to simply defend market share, let alone grow it.”

Anheuser-Busch has a minority ownership stake in Tsingtao. In 2004 it also acquired a stake in Harbin after a bidding war with SABMiller.

Chinese Beer Market Heats Up

SABMiller, A-B making moves.

Two global brewing giants are deepening their investment in China, the world’s biggest beer market by volume.

Anheuser-Busch next month will start importing Grupo Modelo brands, including Corona Extra, into China. A-B, which owns 50% of Modelo’s nonvoting shares, already markets Budweiser in China and owns stakes in Harbin and Tsingtao.

From A-B’s press release:

“The popularity and high quality of Corona Extra make it an excellent complement to our Budweiser and Harbin beers,” said August A. Busch IV, president and CEO of Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. “Corona Extra competes in the super-premium segment of the market, which is experiencing strong growth. With our continued success in this segment, and our 10 years of sales, marketing and distribution experience, we expect to significantly increase the sales of Corona.”

In another A-B move, Advertising Age this week reported that A-B plans to introduce a product called “Budweiser Genuine Draft” in the Chinese market.

Meanwhile, CR Snow -- SABMiller plc’s partner in China -- plans to expand its presence by building a new brewery in the southern part of the country, Just-Drinks reports (subscription required). Its brand Snow recently surpassed Tsingtao as the best-selling beer in China.

Also, CR Snow has agreed in principle to introduce Miller Genuine Draft into the Chinese market, although no launch date has been set.

New Rules

The rules of the beer business are changing. Part two of a weeklong series.

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For nearly three decades, the American beer industry operated by some very basic rules. Big brewers marketed big brands with big television advertising campaigns, and distributors pushed hard with big floor displays.

But now the rules are changing. Imported and craft brands are becoming bigger players on the scene. And the nature of competition in the U.S. beer market has changed.

The latest issue of print Brew looks at seven old rules and their replacements. And it looks ahead to dynamics that are shaping future rules.

Today, a look at rules No. 2 and No. 3.

Old Rule: Imports and crafts are exotic
New Rule: Imports and crafts are mainstream

Icon2importsrgblarge


Back in 1995, imports represented 6 percent of the beer sold in the United States. In 2005, they represented 12 percent, according to figures from Modern Brewery Age. Imports, in the aggregate, have more share than Coors Brewing Company in the United States, according to MBA. A variety of consumer trends – trading up, the popularity of Mexican cuisine, rising tourism and an increasingly diverse population – have transformed former niche products into the choice of Middle America.

Indeed, top imports Corona Extra and Heineken are taking on the characteristics of mainstream domestic brews. They spend millions on television. They’re sold in convenience stores. They’re available in large package sizes. And, bowing to U.S. consumer tastes, they’re available in light versions.

Their very size and marketing budgets make them mainstream. Corona is the sixth biggest beer in the country by shipments and Heineken the 10th, according to figures from Beer Marketer’s Insights. Together they represented 52 percent of import shipments in 2005 and 49 percent of the category’s growth.

Meanwhile, the craft segment has been enjoying a renaissance. During the first half of the year it posted double-digit growth, a pace not seen since the mid-1990s.

Old Rule: Beer is local
New Rule: Local is now global

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The U.S. beer industry began as a local business. In 1873, 4,131 breweries did business in the United States, according to Philip Van Munching’s book, “Beer Blast.” The number plunged over the years for a wide range of reasons (including Prohibition); by the 1950s, regional brewers, along with a few near-national players, dominated.

Consolidation continued apace, and the big got bigger. By the 1970s – partly because of Miller Brewing Company’s rise – beer truly became a national business in which a few heavyweights dominated the landscape. The four biggest brewers represented 23 percent of total industry volume in 1955; by 1975, they represented 60 percent, according to figures from the book “The U.S. Brewing Industry” and Modern Brewery Age.

The U.S. beer industry met globalization in 2002 when SAB plc acquired Miller, creating SABMiller plc. That movement was reinforced in 2005 when Coors Brewing Company merged with Canada’s Molson Brewing Company.

The trend will only continue, because global brewers want to tap the world’s most lucrative beer market. That’s why Heineken NV created Heineken Premium Light, a brew designed for American palates. And that’s why InBev is pushing for national distribution of Stella Artois.

More than ever, the strategies of international brewers are shaping the U.S. beer market. Next time you’re in a Chinese restaurant and see Harbin (partly owned by Anheuser-Busch) or are at a club and see a Peroni Nastro Azzurro (owned by SABMiller), remember those brands were brought to you by globalization.

What’s the Next Big Deal?

Beer Business Daily lays out speculative scenarios.

If you’re in the mood for intriguing speculation about the beer industry’s next major transformational deal, Brew Blog recommends Monday’s installment of Beer Business Daily.

A quick rundown of hypothetical scenarios:

SABMiller acquiring MolsonCoors. The trigger for this is a recent research note from investment bank Cazenove.

A-B loosening its exclusivity requirement so that its distributors can purchase Coors or even Miller wholesalers. BBD notes, “Nothing’s off the table at this point, but A-B isn’t ready to fold on the issue of exclusivity.”

A-B acquiring the Absolut brand. Brew Blog has reported on this matter at length.

A-B being purchased or merging. BBD says the most likely buyers would be Diageo or InBev. BBD publisher Harry Schuhmacher adds “I think at this point I have a better chance of being struck by an asteroid. But it could happen.”

Read the whole thing here (subscription required).

Femsa Enters Mexican FMB Market

“Soul Citric” coming. Possible U.S. rollout to follow?

Femsa, the biggest brewer and bottler in Latin America, is introducing a flavored malt beverage called “Soul Citric” in Mexico.

The Mexican FMB market represents about $200 million in sales and is growing at an 8 percent clip, according to Femsa.

Femsa is eyeing a possible U.S. rollout of the brand, Stifel Nicolaus analyst Mark Swartzberg noted in a brief report.

The rapid growth of the Mexican population in the U.S. already has helped drive the sales of Mexican beers. Would this market embrace a Mexican FMB?

As Census Bureau figures released last week make clear, the Mexican-born population in the U.S. is growing at a rapid clip. Most of the 4.9 million immigrants who entered the country between 2000 and 2005 came from Mexico. The U.S. Mexican-born population now stands at 11 million.

And it’s growing rapidly outside traditional gateway states and spreading into areas such as the upper Midwest and New England.

Sapporo Bids for Canada’s No.3 Brewer

Ends months of takeover speculation.

Sapporo has reached an agreement with Sleeman to acquire the Canadian brewer for $300 million.

Sleeman, a distant No. 3 to Labatt (part of InBev) and Molson (part of Molson Coors Brewing Co.) has been evaluating strategic options since late spring.

A release announcing the deal can be seen here.

In a report Monday, Bear Stearns analyst Carlos Laboy laid out the implications of the deal for Molson as well as SABMiller plc, the parent of Miller Brewing Company.

Regarding Molson he wrote:

Molson will have to go forward with its current portfolio. By passing, TAP missed an opportunity to gain some scale versus Labatt or develop a closer working relationship with FEMSA – Sleeman distributes Sol & Dos Equis. Probably the smart call as TAP has its hands full in other markets and may not have the scale or management depth to handle a new project.

He made this observation regarding SABMiller:

SABMiller's decision to pass is not surprising to us. The company has shown little interest in acquiring low-growth, developed-market assets. However, the company is now essentially locked out of purchasing an asset in a major North American market. We expect Mr. Adami's efforts long term will now be focused on Latin America.

SABMiller Acquires Foster’s in India

Plans to expand the brand through its brewery network.

SABMiller plc on Friday agreed to buy the Foster’s Australian lager brand in India for $120 million in cash, subject to certain conditions being fulfilled, the global brewer announced.

Under the agreement, SABMiller -- the second-biggest brewer in India -- will assume ownership of all of Foster’s assets in the country, including the Foster’s brand and a brewery.

SABMiller is buying the brand as Foster’s divests global assets to focus on its wine business, the Financial Times notes (subscription required). Scottish & Newcastle in April bought the brand in Europe.

Foster’s India operates one brewery. SABMiller intends to extend the brand nationally through its network of 10 breweries.

“This transaction enhances our existing portfolio in India and provides us with an exciting opportunity to further increase our premium brand offering,” Andrew Parker, Managing Director of SABMiller Africa and Asia, said in a release. “The acquisition also supplies much needed capacity to fuel the strong growth we have experienced so far this year.”

The SABMiller release can be seen here.

Anheuser-Busch Rolls Out Bud Silver in U.K.

Bud extension has lower ABV.

Anheuser-Busch is rolling out Bud Silver in the United Kingdom over the next month, according to media reports. It was launched last month in Scotland.

A-B is positioning the brew as a European style lager. It has a hoppier flavor and, at 4.1 percent ABV, a lower alcohol count than U.S. lagers.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has more.

The launch fits in with A-B’s ongoing efforts to diversify its beer sales beyond the U.S., which represents more than 80 percent of its profits. A-B’s dependency on the U.S. market – as opposed to the diversified portfolios of SABMiller plc and InBev – have raised concerns among some Wall Street analysts.

In a report last month, Bear Stearns analyst Carlos Laboy wrote:

When compared to the U.S. and global M&A strategies of SABMiller and InBev, we believe A-B may have missed an opportunity over the last decade to become a truly global player, and the erosion of international scale relative to competition represents a major challenge to the company’s growth.

The global game

Miller, A-B battle goes beyond U.S. shores

The United States is only one front in the contest among consolidating global brewers. And as an online-only article accompanying BusinessWeek’s profile of Norman Adami points out, Miller Brewing Company parent SABMiller is positioned well for that battle.

As detailed in the story, Anheuser-Busch once strode the international beer industry like a colossus. But others have caught up, including SABMiller. Since the 1990s, SAB Miller has acquired brewers around the world. It now has strong positions in mature markets like the U.S. as well as developing markets like China. No single country accounts for more than one-third of its earnings.

A-B, meanwhile, is tied to the U.S., which accounts for 76% of its revenues. Its international businesses represent only 7% of revenues.

These trends are reflected in the market capitalization of each company, a measure of how investors view a company’s prospects.

From 2000 to the present SABMiller’s market cap has grown fivefold to $31 billion. A-B’s has fallen by more than 10% to $36 billion. While these numbers sound abstract, they have real-world relevance in the global competition.

The BusinessWeek story quotes a Wall Street analyst:

"[SABMiller was] able to help put the brakes on AB's stock appreciation in the U.S., and they were able to continue to expand their geographic footprint," says Bear Stearns analyst Carlos Laboy. "Anheuser no longer has a premium valuation [to peers], so when you look at global consolidation it no longer holds a huge advantage."